A potential Iranian oil sanctions waiver announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Thursday could reshape the short-term economic relationship between the United States and Iran, even as the two countries remain in active conflict over the Strait of Hormuz closure. Bessent said the waiver is being considered as part of the administration’s effort to stabilize global oil prices above $100 per barrel.
Iran’s Hormuz blockade has created a daily oil supply deficit of between 10 and 14 million barrels, a disruption that has persisted for close to two weeks and has generated widespread economic concern. The sustained price surge has forced the administration to consider measures that in normal circumstances would be politically and strategically off the table.
Bessent disclosed that approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude are stranded on tankers in international waters, oil originally heading toward Chinese buyers. A targeted temporary waiver could redirect this oil to global markets and provide roughly two weeks of price relief while the US campaign against the Hormuz blockade continues.
The Treasury’s plan is modeled on a previous waiver for Russian oil that contributed approximately 130 million barrels to world supply. An additional unilateral US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release beyond the G7’s 400 million barrel coordinated commitment is also in development, with the administration maintaining its opposition to financial market intervention.
Experts from the sanctions and foreign policy communities raised important concerns. They argued that enabling Iranian oil revenues, even within a limited and time-bound waiver, would provide the Tehran government with financial resources to sustain military activities and fund proxy forces. Critics warned the plan could fundamentally alter the economic dynamics of the US-Iran standoff in ways that benefit Iran more than the brief price relief benefits the US.