The return of $100 oil is raising serious questions about the durability of global economic growth, as the cost of energy climbs to levels that historically have preceded recessions. Brent crude settled around $98 Thursday after briefly touching $100.29, continuing a surge that began when the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. Economists warn that if prices remain elevated for an extended period, the impact on consumer spending, corporate costs, and inflation could be severe.
Iranian strikes continued to disrupt oil supply across the Gulf region Thursday, hitting merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel tanks in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and export facilities near Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. Three crew members aboard the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq shut all crude oil ports, and Oman cleared its main export terminal.
Brent crude gained 9% intraday to touch $100.29 before settling at $98, up around 6%. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has risen from $60 at the year’s start to a peak of $119 this week. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28. Iran’s military warned of $200 oil.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from 32 member nations, and the US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite the intervention, prices remained elevated as the market focused on ongoing physical supply disruption. President Trump pledged to continue military operations while saying prices would fall.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European gas climbed 7.7%.