Iran’s transition to a new supreme leader, rather than producing any pause in the country’s military operations, appeared to coincide with a significant escalation of its campaign against Gulf states and continued threats against global oil markets. Crude prices spiked above $100 per barrel as traders tried to assess what the political transition meant for the war’s trajectory.
Israeli strikes on oil storage facilities near Tehran killed four workers and blanketed the capital in thick, acrid smoke. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by threatening to push global oil to $200 per barrel and launching simultaneous strikes against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait — a coordinated campaign that demonstrated Iran’s capacity to project military force across a vast geographic area.
Saudi forces intercepted 15 drones, Bahrain’s desalination plant was damaged, and two Saudi civilians were killed. A US service member died from injuries sustained in an Iranian attack, bringing American fatalities to seven. Multiple media organizations also reported that Russia had been providing Iran with targeting intelligence for attacks on US military installations.
The clerical assembly’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader was described as a decisive vote intended to preserve national unity. But the visible rift between Iran’s president — who had apologized to Gulf states and pledged to stop striking them — and the military, which continued its operations regardless, suggested that unity remained elusive.
Washington pledged restraint on Iranian oil infrastructure and predicted temporary market disruptions. But with Iran’s military escalating even as its president sought de-escalation, and with a new untested supreme leader now at the helm, the oil market had little basis for optimism.